European Central Bank’s second covered bond purchase programme recorded some notable increases last week, while analysts said that its evolution – in particular the split between primary and secondary purchases – is being heavily influenced by the pace of supply.

Last week reported purchases totalled Eu610m, up from Eu476m the previous week, making it the fifth biggest week’s increase under CBPP2.

A Eu500m seven year ING-DiBa Pfandbrief and a Eu1.5bn seven year Société Générale SFH deal were captured in last week’s reporting, settling last Tuesday (13 March) and Wednesday, respectively. Central banks were allocated 19% (Eu95m) of ING-DiBa’s deal and central banks and SSAs took 5% (Eu75m) of SG SFH’s, although these do not necessarily only reflect purchases under CBPP2.

An increase of Eu322m last Wednesday – which would have captured CBPP2 purchases of the ING-DiBa deal – made up the bulk of the week’s total. It was the biggest day’s increase since 7 March, when purchases of Eu322m were also reported, and the equal sixth highest day’s increase.

The only CBBP2-eligible benchmarks yet to settle are a Eu1bn five year Bankinter issue and a Eu1bn 10 year BNP Paribas Home Loan SFH deal that settle on Thursday, and any buying of these under the programme will be captured in this Friday’s figure. European central banks were said to have taken 11% (Eu110m) of Bankinter’s deal and central banks and official institutions 7% (Eu70m) of BNP Paribas’.

The European Central Bank reported an increase of Eu35m today (Tuesday) after Eu76m yesterday.

The purchase programme is now Eu6.827bn behind a theoretical daily run rate of Eu160m based on the average amount the Eurosystem will have to purchase every day to hit Eu40bn at the time CBPP2 ends in October, according to figures from Royal Bank of Scotland analysts. The average amount purchased daily is Eu95.53m.

The ECB has reported that as of 29 February, 44.2% (Eu3.277bn) of purchases under CBPP2 were in the primary market and 55.8% (Eu4.132bn) in secondary. The breakdown is the second the ECB has released, with the primary market share up from 40% and secondary down from 60%.

“Primary buying went up slightly,” said Florian Eichert, senior covered bond analyst at Crédit Agricole. “If you think about how little has been issued in that time, it is not a massive surprise.

“There is probably not enough issuance to get that split where the ECB want it – being below 50% on the primary side is probably not exactly where they want it.”

He predicted secondary buying would rise for March.

“There’s been even less supply this month and a lot less allocation to the central banks because everyone is trying to get paper,” he said.

An update on the split between primary and secondary buying is expected at the end of this month.

Natixis analysts noted last Wednesday that on the back of limited primary market activity, central banks had been more active in the secondary market, especially for some Spanish, German and French maturities from two to seven years.

A covered bond analyst said that since the beginning of the year the Eurosystem has not been as active as expected.

“I’m still wondering whether they have to do the Eu40bn or not,” said the analyst.