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Summer lull sets in but good case for CIBC return

Bankers said that they expect benchmark supply to be thin on the ground in the coming weeks, although they said there is a good case to be made for the first Canadian euro covered bond in years when CIBC finishes a roadshow starting today (Monday).

CIBC image“Exceptionally low” was how one banker described his expectations of euro benchmark supply volumes over the next couple of weeks, and others also said the outlook is for a quiet period as the summer holidays take hold, with blackouts also a contributing factor.

“The summer break has arrived,” said one. “The market is extremely quiet and there may be some opportunistic taps from national champions but I would be surprised if there were a proper new benchmark.”

This is notwithstanding decent market conditions, according to another syndicate official.

“The market is there, you could do something,” he said. “But there isn’t huge depth so issuers would need to be flexible on sizing and pricing.”

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce begins a European roadshow today, in London, after having become one of two Canadian banks to have a legislative covered bond programme registered with Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp (CMHC) under the country’s new legislative framework. Royal Bank of Canada is the other.

CIBC is working with Commerzbank, HSBC and RBS, alongside its own investment bank. Moody’s on Friday assigned a provisional Aaa rating to the inaugural issuance off the C$15bn (Eu11bn) programme. The cover pool consists of C$6.2bn of conventional, first lien mortgages on Canadian residential properties, and the issuer has committed to minimum overcollateralisation of 7%, according to the rating agency.

A syndicate official at the one of the CIBC leads said that the roadshow was extended from four to five days due to the reception to the roadshow announcement and that a deal may follow if market conditions are supportive.

A syndicate official away from the leads said that the roadshow will tell the issuer if a deal is there for it and that CIBC “could and should” do a transaction. A widening of US dollar agency spreads has meant that a strong preference for US dollar funding is now “equally skewed” toward euros.

“You could easily clear the low teens in five years,” he said.