A pick-up in euro issuance is expected next week as well as the long-awaited arrival of a series of Nordic covered bonds in dollars after a debut for Caisse Centrale Desjardins yesterday (Thursday) – even if global events could potentially throw up obstacles once more, such as the United Nations sanctioned action against the Gaddafi regime in Libya.

Euro benchmark issuance has been restricted to one Eu1bn jumbo, from Berlin-Hannoversche Hypothekenbank on Tuesday, and two French taps this week, but several issuers are said to be keen to access the market should the tone remain good next week.

“It all depends on what will happen over the weekend,” said a head of covered bond syndicate, “with the Japanese situation, Libya, etc.

“But if things move in the right direction then the primary market could restart next week.”

Spanish issuers are said to be keen to take advantage of a rally in their market.

“If you look at the situation in Spain, some of the big names are now trading very tight versus Bonos,” said a syndicate official. “Santander is at 30bp over Bonos in the four to five year part of the curve, so I expect all the Spanish to take a look.”

And one banker said that the stronger issuers would be crazy not to.

Banesto yesterday increased a September 2015 covered bond by Eu175m at 197bp over mid-swaps through Credit Suisse, LBBW and Morgan Stanley.

Bankers are also looking towards those issuers that have yet to issue this year for activity or are due a return. This includes German names such as Deutsche Hypothekenbank and WL Bank, as well as larger issuers such as Eurohypo and Compagnie de Financement Foncier who have not accessed the market since the start of the year.

Other French institutions are on the road ahead of the imminent switch to obligations à l’habitat. BPCE has been holding meetings to introduce the product and Crédit Mutuel Arkea is understood to be working with Crédit Agricole and DZ Bank on a non-deal roadshow as of today (Friday).

The US focus on covered bonds has been heightened in the past week by a House Financial Services Subcommittee hearing last Friday (11 March), a promise of action in the corresponding Senate committee on Tuesday and an industry event in New York on Wednesday.

Caisse Centrale Desjardins, the Quebecois credit union body, however, took the first concrete action, launching its first covered bond yesterday. The $1bn five year was priced at 45bp over mid-swaps by leads Barclays Capital, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and RBS.

“There’s more to come,” said one covered bond banker, “with a pipeline of Europeans looking to issue in US dollars.

“It’s just a matter of when the time is right,” he added. “There are no issues with the individual names.”

DnB Nor Boligkreditt, Nordea Hypotek, SEB AB and Stadshypotek are all expected, with SEB said to be at the head of the queue. Although there has been much speculation about Nordic issuance this year – and Stadshypotek came close to tapping the market in the first week of the year – CFF is the sole European issuer to have sold a dollar benchmark this year, with supply otherwise having been restricted to Canadian names backed by Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation-insured cover pools.

“The Canadians are in a privileged position,” said a syndicate official. “They have the guarantee and that explains everything.

“The US consider them as quasi-sovereign Canadian risk and that is why the can come in pretty much any circumstances they want.”