A Eu5.078bn week’s increase in settled CBPP3 purchases reported by the ECB yesterday (Monday) is the biggest yet, with the inclusion of an estimated Eu3bn of purchases of six new issues helping lift the total above CBPP2’s overall volume. Meanwhile, Cariparma is due tomorrow.

As anticipated yesterday, Cariparma this (Tuesday) morning announced the mandate for a debut, long seven year euro benchmark, with launch expected tomorrow (Wednesday). Banca IMI, Erste, LBBW, NordLB and UniCredit are bookrunners alongside Cariparma parent Crédit Agricole.

The European Central Bank reported the Eu5.078bn increase in CBPP3 to Eu17.801bn yesterday afternoon. It comes after a Eu2.238bn rise the previous week, which took the total to Eu12.723bn.

The weekly totals are released on Mondays and include purchases settled up to the previous Friday, meaning that they do not necessarily reflect buying during the previous five days. Primary market settlement dates are frequently more than five days after a deal’s launch, while secondary market purchases settle two days later.

Whereas two taps totalling Eu400m were the only eligible benchmark issuance that settled in the period covered by the last week of reporting, the latest weekly period took in the settlement of six new benchmarks.

The deals and the amount placed with central banks and official institutions were: Belfius Bank Eu500m five year, Eu235m; BPCE SFH Eu750m long 10 year, Eu375m; Crédit Agricole Home Loan SFH Eu1bn eight year, Eu550m; Helaba Eu1bn four year, Eu630m; OP Mortgage Bank Eu1bn 10 year, Eu420m; Santander Eu3bn dual tranche, Eu1.75bn 10s and Eu1.25bn 20s, Eu752.5m and Eu450m, respectively.

The aggregate central bank and official institutions distribution of the six deals is Eu3.4125bn. However, this also includes some buying outside CBPP3, notably with Asian distribution – which often includes central bank placement – featuring in some new issues, with its highest share having been 11% in Crédit Agricole.

Barclays analysts estimated that, based on investor distribution statistics, Eu3.005bn of the relevant deals were included in the latest increase, constituting around 60% of the rise. They have also estimated that Eu5.1bn of the overall total, or 29% of it, was purchased on the primary market, with the other 71% bought in the secondary market. Retained issuance and private placements may be bought under CBPP3, although another analyst noted that no evidence has emerged to suggest such purchases have materialised.

“As the year-end is drawing closer and primary activity is slowing down, we expect the CBPP3 portfolio growth to be more modest into the year-end, especially given the programme’s increasing reliance on primary market transactions,” said Barclays’ analysts. “In the next report (as at 5 December, published on 8 December) two CBPP3-eligible deals (Sparkasse Hannover 0.875% Dec24 and WL Bank 0.25% Nov 19) totalling only Eu750m have settled and we estimate that in WLBANK deal the CBPP3 bought Eu300m (no statistics available for the SSPHAN deal), so the majority of the increase in the next report will be due to secondary purchases.

“At the current pace of daily secondary purchases of Eu415m, the CBPP3 portfolio should increase to approximately Eu20.2bn in the next report.”

That would mean CBPP3 having in less than two months reached one-third of CBPP1’s Eu60bn. This week’s increase took it past the Eu16.418bn bought under CBPP2, for which Eu40bn was earmarked.

Yesterday the ECB released a first total for an asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP) it is running alongside CBPP3, recording settled purchases of Eu368m. The ECB is reported to have only begun buying under ABSPP on 21 November.

“This is a relatively modest start compared to the Eu1.7bn of covered bonds that the ECB had bought in the first week of purchases,” said Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro. “This reflects the smaller size of the ABS market.

“Indeed, in case of ABS, the ECB needs to rely more heavily on purchases in the primary market. So far, it seems that it has participated in one Dutch RMBS deal and one Italian consumer ABS transaction.”