The ECB announced a modest Eu1.840bn increase in CBPP3 outstandings yesterday (Monday) afternoon, but analysts forecast that settlements this week of much of last week’s supply will lead to a more substantial increase next week.

Yesterday’s increase took outstandings under the European Central Bank’s third covered bond purchase programme to Eu33.131bn, up from Eu31.291bn a week previously. The weekly figures that are released each Monday include purchases settled as of the previous Friday.

While the latest increase is higher than last week’s Eu1.659bn rise, the daily average during the week fell from Eu553m to Eu368m, given that the previous figure took in only three days’ activity after a seasonal suspension of the programme. Yesterday’s increase is also lower than the weeks ahead of the seasonal break, when secondary buying increased at a time when primary market activity fell. No new benchmarks settled last week so yesterday’s figure was interpreted as only including secondary purchases.

Analysts said that while the figures would seem to suggest that CBPP3 purchases are declining, last week’s slow pace could be explained by the ECB being active in a busy primary market and the wait for 13 eligible trades issued last week to settle.

“If you took the new issues from Monday to Wednesday and applied the usual T+2 secondary settlements, this week’s figure would have been Eu3.561bn rather than Eu1.840bn, as our CBPP3 estimate for the deals priced these three days is Eu1.721bn,” said a covered bond analyst. “To make a long story short, despite the lower shares in primary deals in 2015 so far, the CBPP3 hasn’t really slowed down much; you just can’t yet see it in today’s number.”

He said that of the CBPP3-eligible deals issued since the start of the year, 11 transactions worth Eu8.75bn settle this week and can therefore contribute to next Monday’s figure.