Jury out on CBPP3 impact as first PSPP number emerges
The Eurosystem bought Eu9.751bn of bonds in the first three days of the ECB’s public sector purchase programme (PSPP) last week, it reported yesterday (Monday) afternoon, with CBPP3 outstandings up Eu2.788bn from Eu54.159bn to Eu56.947bn in the latest full week.
Yesterday’s PSPP figure is the first to have been released by the European Central Bank after it began buying government bonds and other SSA paper on Monday of last week (9 March). The ECB said in January that Eu60bn will be bought each month via the PSPP, CBPP3 and its asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP).
The Eu9.571bn includes buying conducted on Monday to Wednesday of last week given that it only includes purchases settled as of Friday.
Market participants gave mixed opinions on the pace at which PSPP has started. Jussi Harju, covered bond analyst at Barclays, said that the PSPP figure implies a monthly purchase rate of Eu66.6bn, but added that the buying had begun at a high rate to ensure that the Eu60bn total is hit for March even though the first week was missed.
“Based on the 17 business days between March 9 and March 31, 2015, the current purchase rate implies monthly PSPP purchases of Eu55.3bn,” he said. “Although this is just for the first three business days it is a welcome development for the covered bond market.
“At the current rate of PSPP purchases the Eurosystem would have to purchase considerably fewer covered bonds than before – weekly purchases have averaged Eu2.85bn since the programme started – as we have expected.”
A few analysts said that the pace of Eurosystem buying of covered bonds in the secondary market had moderated slightly – based on their respective assumptions regarding primary market purchases – but while Harju interpreted this as possibly being indicative of less aggressive buying, Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, characterised it as being in line with recent activity.
“So,” he said, “the jury is still out whether the ECB will really slow its covered bond purchases going forward.”
ABSPP outstandings rose Eu118m to Eu3.754bn.