Short week blamed for low CBPP3 number, EAPP beats target
CBPP3 outstandings increased Eu1.808bn last week, the smallest weekly increase since early January, with analysts attributing the fall in purchasing activity to the Easter break. Meanwhile, the ECB beat its monthly target of Eu60bn for its expanded asset purchase programme in March.
The latest figure, published by the ECB yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon after a public holiday on Monday, takes the total volume of purchases settled and outstanding under the third covered bond purchase programme as of Friday to Eu64.670bn, up from Eu62.862bn at the end of the previous reporting period.
The weekly figure is the lowest reported since 12 January, when CBPP3 outstandings rose Eu1.659bn to the previous Friday (9 January), corresponding with a period that took in only three trading days as a result of New Year and given that secondary market purchases settle after two days.
Analysts said the fall in settled purchases in the latest week, versus Eu2.864 in the previous week, was a result of a short trading week – with Friday having been a public holiday and hence no trades settling then – and a less active primary market.
“When adjusting for the respective holidays, it appears less severe and we would thus expect the purchase activity to resume with a higher weekly pace once five working days become available again per week for executing the respective purchase programmes,” said Fritz Engelhard, head of strategy at Barclays.
Two CBPP3-eligible deals settled last week, each Eu500m issues from Aktia and Westfälische Landschaft Bodenkreditbank (WL Bank), making eligible primary market supply Eu1bn. Analysts estimated the Eurosystem bought around Eu360m-Eu370m of the deals, suggesting the remaining Eu1.438bn-Eu1.448bn was secondary market purchases.
The ECB also published its monthly breakdown of CBPP3 purchases yesterday, reporting that in March the Eurosystem bought Eu2.336bn in the primary market (equivalent to 81.1% of purchases) and Eu10.061bn (18.9%) in the secondary market.
Meanwhile, the Eurosystem last week settled Eu11.506bn of public sector bonds under its public sector purchase programme (PSPP), down from Eu14.716bn the previous week, lifting the total to Eu52.522bn.
Analysts at Société Générale noted that in March the ECB bought Eu47.4bn under PSPP in March, which – taken together with Eu12.4bn of covered bonds and Eu1.4bn under its ABS purchase programme – meant that its overall expanded asset purchases, at Eu61.6bn, topped its Eu60bn per month target.
“This is all the more impressive given that the PSPP started on 9 March,” they said.