The rate of buying under CBPP3 increased last week, with European Central Bank figures yesterday (Monday) showing that the portfolio had grown Eu2.606bn in the week to last Friday, but analysts said concrete evidence of EAPP front-loading ahead of an anticipated summer lull is yet to emerge.

Total purchases settled and outstanding under CBPP3 rose to Eu89.883bn as of Friday, the ECB’s said yesterday afternoon, from Eu87.277bn a week earlier.

Last week two CBPP3-eligible deals settled, a Eu750m five year from Banco Sabadell and a Eu750m eight year from MünchenerHyp. Analysts estimated that the Eurosystem bought between Eu400m to Eu620m of the two deals, noting that while central banks and official institutions were allocated 43% of both, non-CBPP3 buying would account for some of this.

Analysts’ estimates for the pace of secondary purchases differed according to their estimates of primary purchases and the weight they gave to an interruption in buying caused by public holidays in some jurisdictions on 4 June, but all saw the pace as increasing to some extent.

Analysts at Barclays calculated that the pace of secondary purchases increased from Eu388m per day in the previous reporting period to Eu498m per day last week, for example, while analysts from Crédit Agricole saw buying up from Eu396m to Eu406m.

“After three weeks of slowing secondary purchases the Eurosystem has again become more aggressive in its purchase activity and brought the daily average close to the long term average since CBPP3 started,” said Jussi Harju, covered bond analyst at Barclays.

“According to our estimates, since the start of the programme, CBPP3 has bought on average Eu487mn of covered bonds each day from the secondary market when adjusting for holidays.”

An increase in expanded asset purchase programme (EAPP) buying has been expected ahead of the summer break, since ECB executive board member Benoît Cœuré on 19 May said purchases would be front-loaded ahead of an anticipated lull in market activity.

Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, said that despite the increase, Monday’s figures show no sign of this step-up in buying having taken place in covered bonds.

“Still, the numbers do not indicate that the ECB is front-loading covered bond purchases,” he said. “Neither do they suggest that the central bank is reducing its presence in the market – last week’s figures seemed to point in this direction.”

Meanwhile, outstandings under the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) increased by Eu10.649bn last week, compared with Eu12.921bn the week before. However, Barclays analysts said that due to the impact of public holidays the pace of daily purchases increased to Eu2.662bn per day from Eu2.584bn per day in the previous report.

“Although the pace has increased, the 3% increase in the daily pace hardly confirms that the ECB has started to front-load its purchases yet,” said Barclays’ Harju. “Considering that the daily purchases are still well below Eu3bn per day – highs were Eu3.3bn per day at the beginning of programme – we still look for more definitive signs of front-loading.”