The CBPP3 portfolio broke the Eu100bn mark last week and – while the pace of buying slowed again and ECB president Mario Draghi gave a surprisingly modest picture of front-loading – analysts expect a sizeable increase next week after primary market activity resumed last Tuesday.

European Central Bank figures released yesterday show that that settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme grew by Eu1.929bn to Eu100.175bn in the week to last Friday, with the pace of buying slowing from the previous week, when the portfolio grew by Eu2.188bn.

The latest figure is one of the lowest so far. Only one public CBPP3-eligible deal settled last week, a Eu500m three year from Caffil, for which distribution statistics were not disclosed.

However, analysts expect the weekly CBPP3 number to increase next Monday, reflecting more settlements on the back of the increased primary market activity since the euro market reopened last week.

The pace of public sector purchase programme (PSPP) buying also slowed last week, with the portfolio increasing Eu11.271bn to Eu227.617bn, compared with Eu11.680bn in the previous reporting period.

Draghi meanwhile on Thursday gave some colour on pre-summer “front-loading” of the expanded asset purchase programme (EAPP) that was flagged by Benoit Coeuré, member of the executive board of the ECB, in mid-May. He said that this amounted to Eu3bn in May and Eu3bn in June, and would be slightly less in July.

The Eu3bn figure is equivalent to an increase of some 5% of the ECB’s Eu60bn monthly EAPP target. Relative to an average monthly CBPP3 volume of around Eu11bn, this would be equivalent to an increase of only around Eu125m in a week’s covered bond buying.

Many market participants had been watching recent figures for signs of front-loading and some were underwhelmed by the magnitude of the exercise described by Draghi. His comments came at the regular post-governing council meeting press conference in response to a journalist questioning whether there had been any front-loading and what it meant.

“There has been front-loading,” said Draghi. “By the way, why should there be front-loading? Well, there should be front-loading because usually people work less in August, and so there is less of a market then. Like in December. So be ready, yes?

“And frankly, I can’t see why there should be such a drama.”