Growth in the CBPP3 portfolio fell to a new week’s low in the week to last Friday, with settled and outstanding purchases increasing by Eu1.099bn, but analysts expect the pace of buying will rebound significantly in next week’s figure on the back of a busy reopening of the primary market.

ECB figures released yesterday (Monday) afternoon show that settled and outstanding CBPP3 purchases increased from Eu111.116bn to Eu112.215bn.

The pace of growth had rebounded in the previous reporting period, rising to Eu1.937bn after consecutive lows of Eu1.414bn and Eu1.12bn in the previous weeks. The latest increase is the lowest weekly total since the programme began, apart from figures relating to the first days after the programme began and two weeks at the turn of the year when the programme was suspended.

Analysts noted that a Eu1bn seven year OP Mortgage Bank issue was the only CBPP3-eligible deal to settle last week. Estimating that the Eurosystem bought around Eu340m of the deal, analysts said secondary market CBPP3 purchases fell to around Eu151m per day.

However, with 10 CBPP3-eligible deals to settle this week, analysts said the next CBPP3 figure should be significantly higher.

“Looking forward to next week’s number, there will be an absolute onslaught of primary market related settlements, with a total of Eu2.9bn of CBPP3 primary settlement, according to our estimates,” said Florian Eichert, head of covered bond and SSA research at Crédit Agricole. “In other words, one week of primary related settlements will be around 40% of all combined August settlements.”

Month-end data also released yesterday showed that as of 31 August, Eu19.969bn (17.92%) of the CBPP3 portfolio had been bought on the primary market and Eu91.493bn (82.08%) on the secondary.

Meanwhile, a dovish ECB conference on Thursday raised expectations of an expansion of QE, with the central bank giving itself more scope to buy bonds by announcing a relaxation of a 25% limit for its share of individual bonds in the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) to 33%.

ECB president Mario Draghi also explicitly emphasised that the extended asset purchase programme’s (EAPP) monthly purchases of Eu60bn could be extended.

“It [the ECB Governing Council] emphasises its willingness and ability to act, if warranted, by using all the instruments available within its mandate and, in particular, recalls that the asset purchase programme provides sufficient flexibility in terms of adjusting the size, composition and duration of the programme,” he said.

“They [extended asset purchases] are intended to run until the end of September 2016, or beyond, if necessary, and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

The pace of PSPP purchases increased last week, to Eu11.910bn from Eu9.776bn in the previous reporting period, raising the overall total to Eu301.447bn.