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SEB suggests recovery after dip, but expectations muted

SEB took Eu1.3bn of orders for a Eu1bn long seven year benchmark today, and bankers said the “routine” deal shows appetite remains after oversubscription levels dipped later last week, but they expect supply to ease this week, even if a peripheral issuer is said to be mulling a deal.

SEBThe Swedish bank’s new issue is the first euro benchmark since Wednesday, when Eika Boligkreditt sold a Eu500m six year. After Eika built books that were only marginally oversubscribed, and following Eu6bn of supply in the first two days of the week, bankers had predicted that issuance would slow into this week as issuers contemplated lower levels of demand.

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) leads BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, SEB and UBS this morning skipped initial price thoughts to launch the Eu1bn January 2023 deal with guidance of the 20bp over mid-swaps area. The spread was then set at 18bp on the back of orders approaching Eu1.3bn, with the order book closing at above Eu1.3bn.

“It looks like a solid trade,” said a syndicate official away from the leads. “The books at least are more encouraging than some of those we saw last week, when it looked as though demand might be dipping, so that’s good to see.”

The new issue is SEB’s second euro benchmark covered bond of the year, following a Eu1bn seven year in June that was the Swedish bank’s first euro benchmark since October 2013.

Syndicate officials noted that the June 2022 issue was priced at 3bp through mid-swaps, but said the new issue’s wider spread reflected how the market had moved since the summer.

Seeing the June 2022s quoted at 10bp, bid, the syndicate officials said the new issue offered a premium of around 6bp-8bp based on the issuer’s secondary curve.

“They followed the new routine, and it worked well,” said a syndicate official.

Syndicate officials said that a peripheral issuer is eyeing the market ahead of a potential deal tomorrow (Tuesday), but that overall they expect fewer new issues to be launched this week than in the last two weeks. They noted that the conclusion of an FOMC meeting on Wednesday will likely narrow the window for issuance this week.

“There is no excitement in this market,” added one syndicate official. “You can get deals over the finish line, comfortably in some cases, but these days you simply won’t score a major early-2015 style success with any given trade, so issuers generally aren’t in a rush.

“Plus, after so many deals were hammered out before the ECB meeting, I think we certainly won’t see the same pace of supply this week.”

However, another syndicate official said the demand for SEB’s new issue might convince other issuers to tap the market.

“SEB was a good print,” he said, “and hopefully it will encourage others.”

Syndicate officials noted that a few names are still in the pipeline, with Hypo Tirol and Raiffeisenbank a.s. having recently promoted potential deals, Deutsche Apotheker- und Ärztebank (apoBank) on the road, and Caisse Centrale Desjardins du Quebec set to hold investor meetings from next Monday (2 November) to 10 November.

A syndicate official at one of Hypo Tirol’s leads said the Austrian issuer is continuing to monitor the market. A syndicate official at one of apoBank’s leads said its expected benchmark trade is unlikely to be brought to market this week, even though its investor meetings will conclude tomorrow.