Redemptions in the CBPP3 portfolio were Eu600m last week, breaking a record set the previous reporting period amid an overlooked recent increase in the amount of bonds maturing, which analysts said means reports of CBPP3’s tapering have been exaggerated.

Some analysts had suggested that CBPP3 purchases have declined in recent weeks, after figures showed that the pace of net growth in the portfolio had slowed in spite of an increase in the Eurosystem’s monthly QE target, from Eu60bn to Eu80bn, as of 1 April.

European Central Bank figures released on Monday show that settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme increased Eu907m, from Eu175.299bn to Eu176.206bn, in the week to last Friday. Analysts estimated the Eurosystem bought some Eu375m-Eu420m of that on the primary market.

Assuming no redemptions, some analysts said this implies average daily secondary market purchases of around Eu100m, which they said could suggest that the pace of purchases was well below the programme’s run-rate earlier in the year, with overall purchases in May likely to fall short of the Eu7bn-Eu8bn recorded in recent months.

“However, looking at gross purchases changes the picture,” said Sverre Holbek, senior analyst at Danske.

In contrast with the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), for which only bonds with a remaining maturity of two to 30 years are eligible, there are no maturity restrictions on the CBPP3.

The ECB each Tuesday publishes a consolidated financial statement including redemptions in its monetary policy securities portfolios. This shows that redemptions in the CBPP3 portfolio amounted to Eu600m last week – the highest redemptions so far, surpassing the record of Eu500m set in the previous reporting period.

An analyst admitted that the CBPP3 redemption figures had been overlooked.

“I kind of ignored this until now, as the first weeks were always zero, and kind of missed the numbers spiking up more recently,” he said. “I’ll certainly pay a lot of attention now.”

Danske’s Holbek said that taking the redemptions into account, the decline in secondary market purchases is much less drastic. He estimated that gross secondary purchases amounted to Eu1.147bn last week, equivalent to Eu229bn per day.

“Even though this is far from the peak in the first half of 2015, where some Eu2.5bn was purchased in the secondary market on a weekly basis, it does suggest that the ECB has scaled up secondary purchases somewhat since the beginning of April,” he said. “The whole discussion about tapering is premature.”

Bernd Volk, head of covered bond and SSA research at Deutsche Bank, agreed that taking redemptions into account, gross CBPP3 settlements are still substantial, which he said confirms that the ECB is not intentionally tapering CBPP3 buying.

“The gross number has become at least interesting,” he added. “Definitely the time when you can only take the Monday CBPP3 number into account is over, because redemptions are definitely a factor now.”

The ECB announced in December that it will reinvest the principal payments on securities purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) as they mature for “as long as necessary”.

Analysts at Crédit Agricole have previously suggested that the reinvestment of these redemptions could amount to a quasi-CBPP4, with covered bond purchases of as much as Eu40bn per year after the APP’s earliest end-date of March 2017.