CBPP3 purchases fell slightly last week, with the Eurosystem buying Eu659m of covered bonds on the secondary market, and analysts said overall asset purchase programme (APP) buying is set to total some Eu60bn-Eu68bn this month, as had been expected after earlier frontloading.

European Central Bank figures released on Monday show that settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme increased Eu659m, from Eu187.380bn to Eu188.039bn, in the week to last Friday. Portfolio redemption figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that no CBPP3-holdings matured last week.

This compares with gross purchases of Eu746m in the previous reporting period, when no CBPP3 holdings matured.

With no CBPP3-eligible issuance settling last week, secondary market purchases averaged Eu132m per day, down from Eu149m in the previous reporting period. According to figures compiled by Crédit Agricole analysts, average daily secondary purchases last week were at their slowest this year.

Overall APP buying totalled Eu13.277bn last week, down from Eu14.855m in the previous week, as purchases under all four programmes decreased.

The public sector purchase programme portfolio (PSPP) grew Eu11.364bn – one of the lowest weekly increases since the APP’s target was raised from Eu60bn to Eu80bn per month in April – and the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) portfolio grew Eu1.25bn – the lowest increase since the programme began.

The Eurosystem’s QE buying had been expected to fall on the back of a lack of issuance and market activity in August, and after frontloading of around Eu5bn per month in April, May and June.

Analysts at Citi said the fall in purchase volumes is not surprising, calculating that purchases fell around 16% month-on-month from July 2015 to August 2015.

“Based on this analysis, August QE could be in the order of Eu64bn-Eu68bn which would mark quite a fall in absolute terms,” said Michael Spies, covered bond and SSA strategist at Citi. “However, this comes after several months of ‘above-average’ buying and would still be consistent with Eu80bn a month of QE.”

Analysts at ING said they expect Eu61bn of August purchases.

“We would stress though that the buying pace still matches the ‘normal’ pace seen before April – when QE was expanded from Eu60bn per month to Eu80bn per month,” said Martin van Vliet, senior interest rate strategist at ING. “As such, distortions of the PSPP remain alive and kicking, with many older, high-coupon bonds with a typically much lower free-float continuing to trade expensive on core curves.”