The pace of CBPP3 buying has not increased with the start of the new quarter, reflecting relatively modest issuance and meagre options on the secondary market, according to analysts, although a well-stocked primary pipeline is expected to allow for a pick-up in purchases later this month.

European Central Bank figures released on Monday show that settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme increased Eu621m, from Eu194.304bn to Eu194.925bn, in the week to last Friday.

Separate portfolio redemption figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that Eu200m of CBPP3 holdings matured last week, implying gross purchases of around Eu821m. This compares with gross purchases of Eu996m in the previous reporting period, when the ECB made a quarter-end amortisation adjustment of Eu566m.

No CBPP3-eligible supply settled last week, meaning that secondary market purchases averaged Eu164.2m per day last week. This compares with analysts’ estimates of Eu155m-Eu178m per day in the previous reporting period.

Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, said it appears that the Eurosystem has not changed its approach to CBPP3 buying at the start of the final quarter of the year.

“This number is roughly in line with the average seen since the start of summer, but it is still below the average of Eu200m-plus that it bought per day in the first half of the year,” he said. “This likely reflects that it has become harder to find the bonds in the secondary market, and as such, we do not expect any change to this number any time soon.

“The only factor that could lift CBPP3 purchases is a pick-up in primary market activity. Happily for the Eurosystem, some euro area issuers are in the pipeline.”

Eu1.5bn of CBPP3-eligible issuance – a dual tranche issue for Italy’s Cariparma – will settle next week, and analysts expect CBPP3 buying to register an increase. A Eu1.25bn seven year issue for Spain’s Ibercaja will settle next Tuesday, meaning any Eurosystem allocation will be included in the following week’s CBPP3 figure, while Belgium’s BNP Paribas Fortis and the Netherlands’ SNS Bank are expected to sell euro benchmarks this month (see separate article).