CBPP3 registered a substantial fall in secondary market buying last week, with average purchases potentially down to as little as Eu24m per day according to analysts’ estimates, which would make it the lowest figure recorded under the programme.

European Central Bank figures released on Monday show the CBPP3 portfolio increased Eu621m, from Eu218.600bn to Eu219.221bn, in the week to last Friday. Portfolio redemption figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that around Eu300m of CBPP3 holdings matured last week, implying gross purchases of around Eu921m. This is down from Eu1.161bn in the previous week.

Three CBPP3-eligible issues settled last week, totalling Eu2.5bn of supply. Analysts’ estimates of the Eurosystem’s share of the deals ranged from Eu600m to Eu800m – compared with Eu600m-Eu700m in the previous week.

CBPP3 buying has in most recent weeks been driven by primary purchases, on the back of increased issuance, but this week’s buoyant estimated primary settlements would mean a new low for secondary buying: they imply that secondary market purchases averaged Eu24m-Eu64m per day last week, down from Eu92m-Eu112m per day in the previous week.

The lower figure of Eu24m per day would be lowest daily average under the programme, according to figures from analysts at Crédit Agricole, while Eu64m per day would be the second lowest to date, higher only than secondary purchases in the week ending 13 January 2017.

“However,” said Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, “this is in line with our view of the purchase programme going forward, where purchases in the primary market are expected to dominate.”