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CBPP3 acceleration expected after primary lull ends

CBBP3 registered a slowdown in buying last week, the portfolio growing just Eu428m in what has typically been one of the quietest times of year for central bank purchases. But an increase in purchases is expected next week, when the first eligible benchmark supply in over a month will settle.

ECB Luminale 2016 Euro TowerECB figures released on Monday show the CBPP3 portfolio grew Eu428m, from Eu226.142bn to Eu226.570bn, in the week to last Friday. Portfolio redemption figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that no CBPP3 holdings matured last week.

The increase is therefore down from gross and net buying of Eu562m in the previous week and well below the average weekly increase this year of some Eu1.12bn.

Maureen Schuller, head of financials research at ING, noted that last week’s net portfolio growth was not especially low by historical standards, however.

“In the past two years, the third week of August has always been the slowest purchase week of that particular month,” she said. “Last year, for instance, only Eu321m was bought in that week, equating to 43% of the average weekly purchases in the other three weeks of August.

“In August 2015, this percentage was 56%. Hence last week’s buying did not only top 2016’s buying in the same week by almost Eu100m, it also equated to 78% of the weekly purchases in the first two weeks of the month.”

As no CBPP3-eligible issuance settled last week, secondary market purchases averaged Eu85.6m per day, down from Eu112m the previous week.

This week, two Eu750m Pfandbriefe, from MünchenerHyp and Commerzbank will settle, making next Monday’s CBPP3 figure the first to include primary market purchases in over a month. Central banks and official institutions bought 40.1% and 67% of the deals, respectively. Analysts therefore expect an increase in the rate of CBPP3 purchases next week to a level closer to the 2017 average.