Gross CBPP3 purchases more than doubled week on week to register buying of some Eu1.4bn last week, the increase coming on the back of higher primary market purchases in a busier market, as secondary buying fell. ECB minutes have meanwhile been seen as confirmation that CBPP3 buying will remain stable next year.

According to ECB figures released on Monday, settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme grew Eu1.396bn, from Eu237.768bn to Eu239.164bn, in the week to last Friday. Figures released yesterday show that no CBPP3-holdings matured.

The gross purchases were up from Eu652m in the previous week, and well above the 2017 average of Eu1.117bn per week. Last week’s purchases are also the highest since the first week of October.

Five CBBP3-eligible benchmark covered bonds settled last week, amounting to Eu3.25bn, of which analysts estimate the Eurosystem bought around Eu1bn. This implies secondary market purchases averaged around Eu80m per day last week, down from around Eu110m in the previous week and the lowest secondary average in five weeks.

Last Wednesday, the ECB published minutes of its October governing council meeting, at which it was decided that the asset purchase programme (APP) will be extended by a minimum of nine months, to the end of September 2018, with a lower target of Eu30bn per month.

The minutes note that while overall APP buying is reduced, purchase volumes under the ECB’s three private sector purchase programmes, including CBPP3, “would remain sizeable and the private sector programmes would not be adjusted in strict proportion to the overall scaling-down of the APP”.

Analysts cited this as supporting the widely held view that CBPP3 purchases will not decrease substantially from a pace of around Eu3bn-Eu4bn per month next year, with the majority of the cut in purchases to come from the public sector purchase programme (PSPP).

The minutes also say “broad agreement” was expressed with the proposal made by Benoit Cœuré, member of the executive board of the ECB, that purchase volumes under the private sector purchase programmes should remain sizeable.