The Eurosystem registered an increase in the pace of CBPP3 purchases last week, with higher secondary buying more than making up for lower primary. In October the Eurosystem may have tallied the biggest monthly net increase to the portfolio this year, aided by low redemptions.

ECB figures released on Monday show the CBPP3 portfolio grew Eu884m, from Eu234.883bn to Eu235.767bn, in the week to last Friday. Redemption figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that Eu300m of CBPP3 holdings matured last week, implying gross purchases of around Eu1.184bn.

This is up from Eu921m in the previous week, and closer to the 2017 average of Eu1.129bn.

Analysts estimated that around Eu300m-Eu400m of last week’s purchases were made on the primary market, down from around Eu500m in the previous week. This implies secondary market purchases averaged around Eu159m-Eu177m per day last week, up from around Eu84m in the previous week.

“This was almost double the amount compared to the week before last, suggesting that the previous lull was only a temporary blip,” said Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro.

On Thursday, the ECB announced a reduction and extension of its asset purchase programme (APP). Purchases will continue at the current pace of Eu60bn per month until the end of December – previously the earliest end-date of the programme – and from January are intended to continue at Eu30bn per month until the end of September 2018 or beyond.

Analysts expect CBPP3 purchases to remain at close to their current pace next year, with the majority of the reduction of APP buying to come from the public sector purchase programme (PSPP).

Some suggested that gross CBPP3 purchases could fall to around Eu2bn per month, but noted that reinvestment of maturing bonds will compensate for such a fall.

As of Friday, with two business days of the month remaining, the CBPP3 portfolio had grown Eu4.453bn in October. Given around Eu300m of portfolio redemptions, gross purchases stood at around Eu4.753bn.

While gross purchases were well below the Eu5.386bn recorded in September, October’s net portfolio growth is, on the back of relatively low redemptions, already the biggest monthly increase since January, when the portfolio grew Eu4.733bn. A full breakdown of October purchases will be released next week.

If buying remained at a relatively high pace on Monday and Tuesday, October’s net growth could overtake January’s. However, a Eu1bn UniCredit OBG matured yesterday, of which analysts at Crédit Agricole estimate the Eurosystem held around Eu200m, potentially reducing the net figure.

On Monday, the ECB will for the first time publish expected monthly redemption amounts for CBPP3 and the three other programmes that comprise the APP over a rolling 12 month period, accompanied by historical redemption figures. The ECB will continue to publish these figures on a monthly basis.