CBPP3 records minimal buys, but upturn imminent
The ECB registered gross CBPP3 purchases of just EUR96m last week, the low figure reflecting just two days of purchases and the Eurosystem’s likely focus on heavy new issuance in a busy primary market.
According to figures released on Monday, settled and outstanding purchases under the third covered bond purchase programme increased EUR96m in the week to last Friday, from EUR240.687bn to EUR240.783bn
Figures released yesterday (Tuesday) show that no CBPP3 holdings matured last week.
Buying under the Eurosystem’s third covered bond purchase programme resumed on Tuesday of last week after a suspension of ECB QE purchases over the holiday period. Last week’s CBPP3 figure therefore relates to just two days of purchases, on Tuesday and Wednesday, as any purchases made on Thursday or Friday will settle this week.
All CBPP3 buying last week took place on the secondary market, with no eligible new issuance having settled last week. However, Eurozone issuers provided EUR5.5bn of benchmark covered bond supply that will settle this week or next, and analysts suggested the Eurosystem will have been focussed on the wave of new supply at the expense of the secondary market, contributing to last week’s low purchases.
“As a result, next week’s CBPP3 figures are likely to be higher,” said Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro. “Overall, recent deal statistics have suggested that the central bank has not materially changed its behaviour of covered bond purchases, but this has not been reflected yet in the weekly figures.”
Florian Eichert, head of covered bond and SSA research at Crédit Agricole, noted that based only on last week’s two days of registered purchases, buying appears to have decreased equally across the programmes – as the ECB registered EUR2.495bn of public sector purchases.
“However, we believe this will be a temporary phenomenon as covered bond primary markets in particular should add substantial volumes to the CBPP3 from next week,” he said.