CBPP3 hits record weekly low, but upturn foreseen
The ECB last week registered the lowest weekly gross CBPP3 purchases in a full five day week since the programme was launched, as they fell to just EUR224m amid a lack of issuance and upon a sizeable fall in secondary market purchases.
ECB figures released on Monday show the CBPP3 portfolio increased EUR224m in the week to last Friday, from EUR256.658bn to EUR256.882bn. Figures released yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon show that no CBPP3 holdings matured last week.
Gross purchases were therefore the lowest recorded in a week under the CBPP3 programme, excluding weeks during months of December or January that relate to fewer than five full days of purchases due to seasonal suspensions in buying.
Last week’s EUR224m compares with EUR474m of gross purchases in the previous week and the 2018 weekly average of EUR928m.
The record low purchases were attributed to the seasonal slowdown, in a year in which the ECB has lowered its monthly QE purchase target to EUR30bn, from EUR60bn last year.
Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, noted that weekly gross purchases in the first three weeks of August averaged EUR338m in 2018, down from EUR510m in the same period in 2017.
No CBPP3-eligible deals settled last week amid the summer lull, as the euro covered bond market was only reopened yesterday after a month without supply. Secondary market purchases therefore averaged EUR44.8m per day, down from EUR94.8m per day in the previous week and the lowest weekly secondary market purchases since March.
Gross CBPP3 purchases are expected to rebound in the coming weeks, on the back of the reopening of the primary market.
However, Beaumont said it remains to be seen if the ECB will this month be able to maintain the monthly pace of its gross CBPP3 purchases at around EUR3bn-EUR4bn.
“So far, it has bought around EUR936m on a net basis this month, while it still has to reinvest EUR475m this month,” he noted.