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CBPP3 up on APP envelope, PEPP starts with a bang

Secondary CBPP3 purchases registered their highest level since August 2015 last week on the back of the €120bn APP “envelope”, while the Eurosystem kick-started PEPP with some €15.6bn of buying on Thursday and Friday following a €23.6bn week’s net APP increase.

ECB imageThe latest weekly figures, which record purchases settled and outstanding as of Friday, are the first to include a full week of Eurosystem activity including purchases from the additional €120bn envelope of APP purchases announced by the European Central Bank on 12 March. However, the weekly figures do not include purchases made under the €750bn Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), which began on Thursday, whose figures will be recorded separately alongside APP.

The ECB nevertheless said yesterday in ad hoc comments that some €15.6bn of PEPP purchases were made in the first two days of the programme

“The overall amounts would be indicative of a significant ‘front-loading’,” said ING analysts, “leaving us hopeful that the announced purchases ‘envelopes’ will be spent in full.”

The overall net APP increase of €23.625bn was 36% up on €17.4bn the week before, and the second highest ever weekly number. Analysts highlighted that the bulk of the increase, 85%, came from the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), while CBPP3, with 7%, exceeded the contribution made by the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP), 5%, for the first time since the end of January, with redemptions contributing to the low CSPP share.

Settled and outstanding CBPP3 holdings increased €1.700bn, from €273.141bn to €274.841bn, up €399m on the week before and the second highest increase since February 2018.

The only bigger increase this year was €2.591bn in the week-ending 24 January and Joost Beaumont, senior fixed income strategist, ABN Amro, noted that this increase was driven by an exceptionally high volume of CBPP3-eligible new issues settling, whereas last week no such issuance settled and Eurosystem purchases were wholly executed on the secondary market.

“It struck me that without the support of the primary, they managed to buy €1.7bn,” he said, “which equates to some of the highest ever daily average purchases on the secondary market.

“But really, given the APP envelope, this should not come as a surprise. It’s in line with what they’ve announced, and next week they will set more records with the PEPP.”

With no CBPP3 holdings having matured last week and given no CBPP3-eligible supply settled, the Eurosystem bought some €340m a day on the secondary market, up from around €300m the week prior, and the biggest daily average since August 2015.