Six euro benchmarks this week took post-summer supply to €10.75bn, with a €1bn 10 year for Commerzbank priced with just 1bp of new issue premium yesterday (Thursday) underlining the friendly conditions, even if RLB NOe-Wien did not tighten pricing on a €750m deal.

Yesterday’s two trades took the week’s euro benchmark issuance to €4.75bn, following €6bn of supply last week as the market reopened after a three week break.

Year-to-date supply of almost €135bn has breached all but the most bullish of analysts’ forecasts for the year, and on Tuesday ING head of financials sector strategy Maureen Schuller upped her forecast for the year again.

“We now believe euro benchmark covered bond supply should easily be able to reach the €160bn mark this year,” she said.

Such a figure would make it the highest year for euro benchmark issuance since the peak of €193bn in 2011, but Schuller noted that the €25bn needed to reach €160bn is low by historical standards for the last four months of the year.

Commerzbank attracted some €1.95bn of orders to its €1bn 10 year, with the book growing even after pricing was tightened from the 13bp over mid-swaps area to 9bp, implying a new issue premium of 1bp.

The German deal comes after compatriot Bayerische Landesbank on Wednesday issued a €500m nine year at 3bp on the back of some €2.4bn of demand and following guidance of the 7bp area, landing at a new issue premium of 2bp-3bp.

“Following a recent string of longer-dated paper, it is safe to say this part of the curve is open for business – at least for the right names,” said Rabobank analysts, “without having to pay too much for the privilege.

“For now, nobody has dared to issue past the 10 year maturity, but it cannot be ruled out that issuers will seek to venture beyond this point as some will certainly be looking to raise even longer dated funding.”

Raiffeisenlandesbank Niederösterreich-Wien (RLB NOe-Wien) priced a €750m 10 year at a new issue premium of around 4bp yesterday, but although the outcome was satisfactory, a lead banker acknowledged that the deal had not gone as smoothly as Commerzbank’s, with the re-offer of 24bp in the middle of initial guidance and the final book standing at only €920m, including €35m of joint lead manager interest, even though books had earlier topped €1bn less than an hour and a half after books were opened.

“It’s no secret that issuers don’t like transactions that finish where they start,” said the lead banker. “But the issuer responded very pragmatically.

“At €920m, we had a solid level of oversubscription that could withstand a large fill,” he added, “and the deal is holding up well in secondary today.”

Some market participants away from the leads suggested the starting point had been too aggressive, being at most 4bp back from fair value.

“People may have been spoiled a bit by the super-successful Bawag last week,” responded the lead banker.

That Bawag PSK €1.25bn 10 year trade – the largest Austrian benchmark covered bond – attracted a €2.2bn final book, was priced at 20bp, and tightened 1bp. The lead banker noted that the new issue is also RLB NOe-Wien’s third euro benchmark since April and he said this, as well as heavy supply from the Austrian sector in the first half, could have played into the trade.

On Tuesday, two deals in the seven year part of the curve highlighted the stronger dynamics at play for CBPP3-eligble versus ineligible deals, as Crédit Agricole Home Loan SFH priced a €1bn long seven year at a new issue premium of around 2bp and National Australia Bank sold a €750m (A$1.07bn) seven year with a NIP of around 7bp. As noted last week, the differential was more evident in the longer than shorter maturities, as Fédération des caisses Desjardins du Québec on Monday priced a €750m four year with a NIP of 3bp-4bp.

A UK public holiday on Monday is expected to contribute to a slower start to next week, with syndicate bankers also saying the pipeline is thinner.

The only officially mandated euro benchmark is a planned five year for Macquarie Bank that is due after investor meetings and calls scheduled for Tuesday to Thursday. BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, HSBC, ING, Macquarie and SG have the mandate.

The Australian bank has only issued one previous euro benchmark, a €500m five year that matured in February 2021.